Crypto Market Analysis: Bitcoin and Ethereum Bullish Momentum in Late October 2025

Published on October 27, 2025

The cryptocurrency market has experienced a rollercoaster ride throughout October 2025, marked by sharp sell-offs triggered by escalating U.S.-China trade tensions and subsequent rebounds fueled by signs of de-escalation. After a devastating crash earlier in the month that wiped out nearly $19 billion in leveraged positions, Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) are now showing renewed bullish momentum. As we approach the end of the month, BTC is testing key resistance levels around $116,000, while ETH demonstrates even stronger resilience above $4,100. This analysis delves into the recent price action, technical indicators, macroeconomic influences, and trading strategies for these leading assets, providing a comprehensive overview for investors navigating this volatile landscape.

The October 2025 Crypto Crash: A Catalyst for Recovery

October began on a high note for the crypto market, with Bitcoin reaching an all-time high of over $126,000 on October 6. [](grok_render_citation_card_json={"cardIds":["0ebe11"]}) However, the euphoria was short-lived. On October 10, U.S. President Donald Trump announced sweeping 100% tariffs on all Chinese imports, effective November 1, igniting fears of a full-blown trade war. [](grok_render_citation_card_json={"cardIds":["d03f6f"]}) This geopolitical shockwave triggered a massive risk-off sentiment across global markets, leading to a sharp sell-off in cryptocurrencies.

Bitcoin plummeted over 17% in a single day, dipping below $104,000 and erasing much of its monthly gains. [](grok_render_citation_card_json={"cardIds":["f5aab7"]}) Ethereum followed suit, dropping to around $3,682. [](grok_render_citation_card_json={"cardIds":["e0f2f1"]}) The cascade effect was amplified by excessive leverage in derivatives markets, resulting in a record $19 billion in liquidations—the largest in crypto history. [](grok_render_citation_card_json={"cardIds":["1c7a2e"]}) Highly speculative assets like Dogecoin suffered even steeper declines, falling over 50%. [](grok_render_citation_card_json={"cardIds":["e190ec"]})

China's retaliatory measures further exacerbated the downturn, with the total crypto market capitalization shedding $350 billion in mid-October. [](grok_render_citation_card_json={"cardIds":["75cd6c"]}) Traditional markets were not spared; the S&P 500 slid over 2%, underscoring the growing correlation between crypto and equities. [](grok_render_citation_card_json={"cardIds":["59dcf2"]}) Analysts noted that cryptocurrencies, once touted as hedges against traditional finance, behaved more like high-beta risk assets during this episode. [](grok_render_citation_card_json={"cardIds":["f8b19d"]})

Yet, as quickly as the storm hit, signs of easing tensions emerged. By late October, reports of preliminary agreements between Washington and Beijing to roll back some tariffs boosted market sentiment. [](grok_render_citation_card_json={"cardIds":["fa57f4"]}) U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's comments that the administration was "no longer considering" the full 100% tariffs provided much-needed relief. [](grok_render_citation_card_json={"cardIds":["3c8be4"]}) Coupled with expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut on October 29—priced in at 99% probability—the market has rebounded sharply, with the total crypto capitalization climbing back to $3.98 trillion, up 3.5% in the last 24 hours as of October 27. [](grok_render_citation_card_json={"cardIds":["90e9b6"]})

This recovery sets the stage for the bullish momentum we're witnessing today. Bitcoin ETF inflows resumed, with $90 million entering on October 24 alone, signaling renewed institutional confidence. [](grok_render_citation_card_json={"cardIds":["9fbc75"]}) On-chain data shows short-term holders accumulating aggressively, further supporting the uptrend. [](grok_render_citation_card_json={"cardIds":["dbe6c9"]})

Bitcoin's Bullish Breakout: Testing $116,000 Resistance

Following last week's strong close, Bitcoin has reclaimed significant ground, trading around $115,000–$115,600 as of October 27. [](grok_render_citation_card_json={"cardIds":["45f693"]}) This marks a 12% rebound from its mid-October low of $103,750, propelled above the 200-day EMA—a historically bullish signal. [](grok_render_citation_card_json={"cardIds":["5673ee"]}) The $116,000 level, Bitcoin's previous all-time high from early October, has emerged as a pivotal resistance on the 4-hour chart. [](grok_render_citation_card_json={"cardIds":["d48d01"]}) This morning's test of this barrier echoes the rebound seen after the October 10 sell-off, where BTC bounced but ultimately pulled back due to overhead supply.

Technical indicators paint a cautiously optimistic picture. Bitcoin has crossed above its 50-day simple moving average (SMA), a short-term bullish trend marker, now at approximately $110,000. [](grok_render_citation_card_json={"cardIds":["daf9eb"]}) Volume has spiked higher during the breakout, confirming genuine buying interest rather than speculative froth. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart sits at 55, neutral but trending upward from oversold territory post-crash. [](grok_render_citation_card_json={"cardIds":["04949b"]})

If BTC decisively breaks above $116,000 with conviction—ideally on closing prices above this level—the next target range shifts to $118,000–$120,000. This zone aligns with Fibonacci extension levels from the recent low and coincides with psychological resistance. [](grok_render_citation_card_json={"cardIds":["412557"]}) A breakout here could accelerate momentum toward $123,000 by early November, as forecasted by some models. [](grok_render_citation_card_json={"cardIds":["b88c96"]}) However, failure to breach $116,000 might invite profit-taking, with notable overhead pressure from sellers accumulated during the September rally.

On the downside, the $114,000–$113,000 area offers a robust buy zone for long positions. This support cluster includes the 50-day SMA and a volume profile node where buyers stepped in post-crash. A deeper pullback to $111,000 would align with the weekly open and could present an even better entry, but a drop below $109,700 risks testing $106,700. [](grok_render_citation_card_json={"cardIds":["ef9cd0"]}) Traders should monitor the Ichimoku cloud on the daily chart, which remains a key resistance until breached. [](grok_render_citation_card_json={"cardIds":["3c2779"]})

Fundamentally, optimism over easing trade tensions is the primary driver. With stablecoin volumes hitting $19.4 billion year-to-date and institutional inflows resuming, Bitcoin's role as a macro hedge is strengthening. [](grok_render_citation_card_json={"cardIds":["9f75da"]}) The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has shifted to 51 (neutral), up from extreme fear levels mid-month, indicating improving sentiment. [](grok_render_citation_card_json={"cardIds":["bd8125"]})

Ethereum's Superior Momentum: Holding Strong Above $4,100

Ethereum has outperformed Bitcoin in the recovery phase, holding firmly above the crucial $4,100 support level and trading at approximately $4,194–$4,256 as of October 27. [](grok_render_citation_card_json={"cardIds":["f9c402","99e53b"]}) This resilience is notable, as ETH has consolidated between $3,682 and $4,300 since early October, forming a double-bottom pattern with a neckline at $4,271. [](grok_render_citation_card_json={"cardIds":["515080"]}) The asset's momentum remains comparatively stronger, buoyed by network upgrades and growing DeFi activity.

On the technical front, Ethereum's RSI is oversold no more, climbing to 60 on the daily timeframe—a level conducive to continued upside. [](grok_render_citation_card_json={"cardIds":["26a7be"]}) The price has reclaimed key EMAs around $4,026–$4,123, with the 20-day EMA at $4,533 providing dynamic support. [](grok_render_citation_card_json={"cardIds":["7a1644"]}) Immediate resistance looms in the $4,250–$4,300 range, aligning with the channel upper boundary and Fibonacci retracements from the monthly high of $4,732. [](grok_render_citation_card_json={"cardIds":["4b8461"]})

A successful breach of $4,300 could unlock the $4,500–$4,650 zone by month-end, with extensions to $4,800 if volume confirms. [](grok_render_citation_card_json={"cardIds":["0ac2c9"]}) Analysts project a push toward $5,000 in November, provided ETH closes the month strongly above $4,500. [](grok_render_citation_card_json={"cardIds":["3b1828"]}) Longer-term forecasts are even more bullish, with averages between $4,000 and $5,500 for 2025, potentially exceeding $6,500 on sustained adoption. [](grok_render_citation_card_json={"cardIds":["7c181d"]})

The $4,100–$4,050 zone stands out as an attractive accumulation area for longs. This support includes the 50-day EMA and a high-volume node from September lows, where institutional buying was evident. [](grok_render_citation_card_json={"cardIds":["b04f47"]}) A dip here would offer a favorable risk-reward setup, especially with exchange supply at a nine-year low, indicating reduced selling pressure. [](grok_render_citation_card_json={"cardIds":["98ce59"]}) Below $4,000, however, $3,965–$3,900 becomes critical; a breakdown could retest $3,700. [](grok_render_citation_card_json={"cardIds":["3310a8"]})

Ethereum's edge stems from ecosystem developments. DEX volumes surged 47% in September, and whale accumulation has added over 871,000 ETH since June. [](grok_render_citation_card_json={"cardIds":["9d9ff6"]}) The upcoming Fusaka Upgrade testnets, confirmed for late October, promise enhanced scalability, further differentiating ETH from BTC. [](grok_render_citation_card_json={"cardIds":["313761"]})

Trading Strategies and Risk Management

For Bitcoin bulls, a long position above $116,000 targets $118,000–$120,000, with a stop-loss below $114,000 to guard against false breakouts. Scalpers can fade the resistance with shorts, aiming for $113,000, but only on bearish confirmation like a shooting star candle. In the buy zone of $114,000–$113,000, pyramid entries with a 1:3 risk-reward ratio could yield substantial returns if the breakout materializes.

Ethereum traders might enter longs at $4,100–$4,050, targeting $4,300 initially, then $4,500. Use the 4-hour RSI divergence for entries and trail stops above the 20-day EMA. Options traders could consider calls struck at $4,200, expiring November, hedging with puts at $3,900 amid volatility.

Risk management is paramount. With liquidations still elevated at $431 million daily, leverage should stay below 3x. [](grok_render_citation_card_json={"cardIds":["90126f"]}) Diversify across BTC and ETH, allocating 60% to BTC for stability and 40% to ETH for alpha. Monitor Fed announcements and trade headlines closely, as they could swing sentiment overnight.

Broader market factors include Bitcoin ETF trends and stablecoin growth, which have injected $446 million in the past week. [](grok_render_citation_card_json={"cardIds":["a0bd71"]}) Historical October data favors crypto, with average gains of 24% in Q4 for ETH. [](grok_render_citation_card_json={"cardIds":["fb5d1d"]}) Yet, quantum computing risks and regulatory shifts loom as tail risks.

Conclusion: Navigating the Bullish Horizon

As October 2025 draws to a close, Bitcoin and Ethereum's bullish momentum underscores the market's resilience amid geopolitical turbulence. The $116,000 resistance for BTC and $4,250–$4,300 for ETH are the battlegrounds to watch, with buy zones at $114,000–$113,000 and $4,100–$4,050 offering strategic entries. Easing trade tensions and macro tailwinds position the duo for year-end gains, potentially targeting $120,000 for BTC and $5,000 for ETH.

Investors should remain vigilant, blending technical precision with fundamental awareness. The crypto winter of mid-October feels distant now, but discipline will separate winners from speculators. Stay tuned for updates as November—the historically jackpot month—unfolds. [](grok_render_citation_card_json={"cardIds":["e45f33"]})

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and not financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments carry high risk; always conduct your own research.

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